How to Predict Story Plots: A Guide for Readers, Writers, and Watchers
Shock your friends with your incredible capability at predicting plots, dialogue, and endings!
Plot twists are almost universally loved for their emotional impact after a long-winded journey of trying to understand the story. Well-done plot twists create a deeper understanding of what the story is truly about, but they also don’t come out of nowhere.
Seasoned storytellers recognize the patterns in a narrative that offer subtle clues about what’s to come. Learning to spot these markers can help you foresee key moments in a way that may be even more satisfying!
In this post, I’ll cover some elements that make a story successful and satisfying to consume. Whether you’re an avid movie-goer looking for behind-the-scenes tips or a professional writer looking for a refresher, I hope you’ll find value in these insights on character, plot, and setting.
Spoiler warning for: The Avengers, The Boys, The Hunger Games, Monster House, and Us
1: What Goes Up Must Come Down
The best stories thrive on a series of positive and negative events. We recognize this innately in our own lives—taking win after win can only last for so long until you stub your toe or fumble a presentation. Failures are natural and expected in a story, so you should anticipate them being interspersed with successes.
When you pay close attention, you’ll notice a cycle in which triumphs are followed by challenges, and wins are followed by losses. These are a mixture of events and information that bring us closer to or further from the goal.
Example: In The Avengers (2012), after the team captures Loki—seemingly a huge win—things turn south when his team disrupts the Helicarrier’s systems, causing chaos and Loki’s eventual escape.
This isn't the end of the movie, but it's a great example of how even an outwardly positive moment foreshadows an impending downturn. They caught the villain, but something has to happen to mess up their plans. What’s the worst thing that could happen? Loki could escape. And that’s where storytelling turns a predictable event into something worth watching.
Look for imbalance. Things can only trend upward or downward for so long before a shift is inevitable.
2: Marked for Death
Character deaths may seem random or unnecessary, but more often than not, they are intentionally placed to push the narrative forward. Whether they’re heroic, tragic, or senseless, not all character deaths are equal in significance. For a death to be impactful, it has to create change that moves the plot forward.
While there are many ways to push a plot forward, death remains one of the most volatile tools. So how can you predict one? Here are a few signs:
This character has little significance: A background character whose lines give more exposition than personality? They probably won’t stick around long.
This character is a major blockade: This applies to villains but could also be a character preventing the protagonist from achieving their goal.
The protagonist’s worst fear is realized: Often, it’s not the protagonist’s death that matters—it’s the death of someone they didn’t realize they cared about until it’s too late.
Example: In The Boys Season 2, the finale has a showdown involving key characters like Homelander, Butcher, and Queen Maeve. Ryan, Butcher's stepson, faces an internal struggle—loyalty to his mother vs. loyalty to his father. Knowing that Ryan had little control over his powers, I suspected his mother would meet her end to push him toward making a decision.
Predicting deaths depends on tuning into genre tropes. A RomCom likely won’t kill off the love interest, but in a thriller, it’s a distinct possibility!
3: The Goal-Driven Narrative
The goal is the backbone of any story. What does your protagonist really want? Is it freedom? A family? Often, their goal isn’t explicitly stated, but you can infer it from their actions, conversations, and the story’s direction.
If a story makes sense, it’s because you can see where the characters are headed and how they’re getting there. Even if you miss a part, you can piece it together based on the character’s goals. For example, in a sci-fi thriller, the protagonist's external goal might be survival, but their internal goal could be protecting a loved one. This might lead you to predict a heroic sacrifice later in the story.
Example: In The Hunger Games, Katniss’ goal is survival, right? Then why does she threaten to end her own life when she’s about to win? Katniss’ deeper goal is to defy the system, and this becomes the catalyst for the revolution. If you don’t catch on to this early, her motivations throughout the series might seem confusing.
Always ask yourself, "What would I do if I wanted the same thing as the protagonist?" It’s a great starting point for predicting their next move.
4: Setting as a Character
Settings carry significant weight in a story. They set the tone for a scene and can hint at what’s about to happen. In some stories, the setting itself almost becomes a character with its own personality.
When characters walk into a dark, creaky house, we instinctively know something bad might happen. Settings often foreshadow conflict or danger, or they can mislead us into a false sense of security.
Example: In Monster House (2006), the house is literally a character. Details like its rug (a tongue) and windows (eyes) hint at the real story behind the house. While we may not immediately guess it’s alive, these clues make it seem obvious in hindsight.
5: It’s Not Over Until It’s Over
A predictable story often means you’re able to read its structure. The climax is the highest point of tension, where the audience is most engaged. But the story isn’t over just because the climax has passed.
The falling action and resolution often contain plot twists or significant revelations that recontextualize everything that came before. Sometimes, the biggest twists happen here, after we think the story has already resolved.
Example: In Us (2019), after the climactic fight is over, we learn that the “Adelaide” we’ve been following is actually the tethered version, who swapped lives with “Red” years ago. This revelation changes everything we thought we knew, and rewatching the movie reveals subtle clues that hinted at this twist all along.
Not every story has a neat resolution, but understanding where you are in the narrative can prevent confusion and help you anticipate what’s to come.
Being able to predict a story's plot comes down to understanding the structure and recognizing key patterns. Whether it's the ups and downs of a narrative, the potential for character deaths, or the significance of settings, these elements work together to create a satisfying and sometimes surprising journey. The more you pay attention, the better you'll become at predicting what’s next—but remember, even when you think you know, stories have a way of surprising us.
What’s the best plot twist you’ve ever witnessed?
If you like writing, talking about it, or reading it, consider subscribing to join the conversation.